Blue Wave Building in the Strait of Hormuz

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[01:38] This is the Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast podcast. I'm Kelly Bowman and I have been chasing the stories, meeting the people and uncovering the little details that help you explore this place like a local. And the more time you spend here, you realize it's not just a beach. The shoreline is a launch pad for catching waves and watching rockets lift into space. Open your free iHeartRadio app, search Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast, and you can find a beach on the beach. [02:07] And listen now. [02:09] Fresh Florida Watermelon. When they say don't play with your food, they're not talking about fresh Florida Watermelon. Built for fun, this mouth-watering powerhouse is perfect for backyard barbecues. It's the snack table all-star that always brings its A-game, one delicious bite at a time. When it comes to picking your picnic lineup, select the summertime legend. Pick Florida Watermelon. To see what Florida Watermelon can do for you, visit freshfromflorida.com today. [02:39] Thank you. [03:00] Welcome to Pod Save America, I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. On today's show we're going to talk about reports that Trump is getting bored with the war,

[03:11] More Republicans in Congress are speaking out against the war. Gas prices keep going up and the polls are looking bleak. [03:17] for the president and his party. [03:18] We'll get into all that as well, plus the latest with the DHS shutdown that's causing huge lines at American airports. Finally, we'll talk about the shit show of a governor's race here in California. [03:28] where Democrats may be screwing ourselves into electing a Republican. Also, beyond this show, we continue to cover all the developments around the war in Iran, Donald Trump's presidency, and everything else. So please consider subscribing if you haven't already, so you don't miss out on anything. Friend of the Pod subscribers get our new extra episode of Pod Save America, called Pod Save America Only Friends. Love it and I did it this week, so there's one in the feed right now if you subscribe. Other subscriber-only shows like Polar Coaster with Dan Pfeiffer. [03:57] The guy that's right here with me? That's me. Virtually. But you didn't do one this week. No, we do it every other week. You hate us. Yeah, so we have one next week. Well, boy, we're going to do some polar coasting in this episode. But to hear more, you've got to subscribe and listen to – you can get Polar Coaster with Dan. You also get access to all of our excellent Substack newsletter, like Pod Save America Open tabs, ad-free episodes of all your favorite Crooked pods, [04:27] head to crooked.com slash friends and uh and subscribe today did you get 50 000 last week almost 50 000 like any moment okay could happen it could be right now who knows all right [04:38] But you know what? [04:39] Will there be a ding when it hits there? Yeah, we haven't figured out what we're going to do once we hit 50,000. Like, we were going to promise that someone does something. Tommy said that maybe he would put a picture of his feet online. Did subscriber numbers go down after that? Yeah, I was going to say. Someone suggested that, like, maybe if we get hit 50,000, Elijah will stay on parental leave. Which I feel like is not really fair to Elijah. I will unsubscribe myself to keep that from him. We need that man back. I know. I agree. He subscribed 12 times to try to get you there.

[05:08] Probably. Anyway, there'll be some kind of a prize. So, you know, it could be for you. Be the 50,000 subscriber. Who knows? All right, let's get to the news. The president has now deployed nearly 7,000 American troops to the Middle East, some of whom may or may not be fighting on the ground in Iran by the time you hear this. [05:27] We are recording on Thursday afternoon. But even as Axios reports that Pete Hegseth is developing options for a, quote, final blow that could involve a new massive bombing campaign and ground invasion, Trump just said that he's pausing, quote, energy plant destruction for another 10 days now. [05:47] per Iranian government request, because he says talks are ongoing and going well. He then he called into the five on Fox and Friends, which is something that happens. Still waiting for him to call in here. But, you know, but when he called into the five, he said, you know, they asked me for seven. And I said, I'll give you 10. I feel like the entire thing could be made up, but we can get into that. Either way, the Wall Street Journal reports that Trump is he's ready for this thing to be over. [06:17] was distracting from his other priorities, and that, quote, he's ready to shift to his next big challenge, [06:24] Though Trump didn't say what that might be. [06:27] Fortunately, we did get a sense of what those other priorities and challenges might be during a cabinet meeting on Thursday where he talked about Iran and so much else. Let's listen.

[06:40] I read a story today that I'm desperate to make a deal. I'm not, I don't, I'm the opposite of desperate. I don't care. We don't need the... [06:48] Four more straight. [06:49] We don't need it. [06:50] We don't need it at all. We have so much oil. [06:54] Our country is not affected by this. Frankly, I thought the oil prices would... [06:58] go up more and I thought the stock market would go down more. [07:01] hasn't been [07:03] nearly as severe as I thought. This ballroom is going to be something that's so beautiful for the city. It's no secret the military wanted it more than anybody. We're building... [07:11] an arc, a triumphal arc, which would be incredible for the city. We're fixing up the [07:16] what was the Kennedy Center. I was honored when the board [07:21] Change the name a little bit. I'm a gold person. It's all real stuff. You can't imitate it. Someday they'll discover a paint. [07:29] That will look like gold and the guy's going to be the richest man in the world see this pen right here this pen is an interesting example the same thing [07:36] So this pen is very inexpensive. [07:39] But it writes well. I like it. [07:42] They can't have the pen the way it was. You know what it is. I don't want to give too much publicity, but they do treat me with a Sharpie. I don't want a stupid person being president. [07:52] Here, here, sir. Here, here. [07:56] I mean, that went on for hours this morning. It's a cabinet meeting in the middle of a war. [08:02] Marines, other troops headed to the Middle East could be a ground invasion any moment now. Oil prices off the charts. Stock market had its worst day since the Iran war began today. And we got that this morning. It does seem like he's a little bored, Dan, with this massive war that he continues to claim he's already won. What do you think's going on behind the scenes? And what do you think of that journal story?

[08:30] What is going on behind the scenes? [08:35] You know, every once in a while in The Simpsons, they go to the inside of Homer's brain and it's just like tumbleweeds or like a hamster on a wheel. I kind of feel like that's what is going on behind the scenes. Like that story... [08:45] And the Wall Street Journal is so disturbing because it's like the takeaway is that Trump just simply doesn't have the attention span for the war he started. And when you read the story, he's like a passive observer of the war. It's like he's told AIDS he wants it to end soon. [09:02] Well, it's it's an it's another episode of the Trump show, and he feels like the episode has run its course and it's time for a new episode, because otherwise he's going to lose the audience. [09:12] but he's the commander in chief. He started the war. Like what's his plan to end it? What's he doing? Like, what is that actually happening? There's just, he really just like gave an order, a war started and he's kind of like, just kind of weighing in periodically from the sidelines is like, [09:27] like the peanut gallery and it's like it's embarrassing and [09:31] Yeah, I've been trying to piece together, as I'm sure you have and everyone else over the last 48, 72 hours, like what actually is happening, because you can't really trust Donald Trump to tell the truth. You can't really trust the Iranians to tell the truth. It seems as though that there are some countries that want to act as mediators, and they've been trading messages between lower level U.S. officials and Iranian officials.

[10:01] They want to put together actual negotiations in person, but no one has decided that they want to do that yet. The Iranians, they are very cautious about trusting Donald Trump. I wonder why. Exactly. Because they think he's just talking about negotiations so he can pull off another sneak attack on Iran, as he has done now many times before. And the Israelis have also done. [10:31] So Iran is preparing for some kind of an invasion. It does seem like we could get, you know, the Marines and the other troops they sent over to the Middle East could arrive. [10:41] Any minute now, the original deadline for Trump deciding to do a war crime and blow up all their power plants was Friday night. And so there is some thought that maybe Friday or Saturday there's some kind of invasion or attack. Axios, as they reported on, the final blow. There's four options. Three of them involve invading Karg Island and other islands in order to secure the Strait of Hormuz. [11:11] them. So it is Trump's out there saying that there are negotiations. It's happening. I don't it doesn't seem like that's true. It seems like the Iranians are open to negotiations, but again, can't trust Trump. So they don't know what to do. But who in Iran? Right. They've been that too. Yeah. Well, like Trump for a while was the leader of parliament. He was going to talk to, but it's unclear if that person has any power. And as soon as Trump called that person, you know,

[11:41] It wasn't good for that person standing in the country and with the Republican guard, the IRGC, who actually runs the country. And – [11:49] And it's just there really is something – [11:51] Like the president is just lying all the time. [11:54] He lied about why we went to war. [11:58] repeatedly. He is lying about the, how the war is going. [12:03] It appears he's making up negotiations of some kind, or at least is dramatically overstating what's happening in order to manipulate the market. Yeah, that's the most generous interpretation is that. Yeah. I mean, like, is it possible that there are people in the country of Iran who are talking to people in other countries and then those people are talking to people in our country? That is probably happening in some way, shape, or form. [12:33] The Iranians had some. The United States, the 15-point plan, whatever else. But the president's making it seem like there is a group of Iranians and a group of Americans in some sort of mythical Yalta having a conversation about the future of this war. And that's clearly – [12:47] Not happening. And like the Iranians don't trust them. We don't trust them. We know not to trust the Iranians. It's all that's very and you're doing this in a country of which there are no American reporters on the ground of consequence. There's a handful and there's no domestic reporting in that country to tell us what's happening. And so we really just have no. [13:07] idea what's happening. [13:09] Meanwhile, four million people in Iran and Lebanon have been displaced so far. Tens of thousands have already left those countries as refugees, some to Turkey, some to other countries. Thousands are dead, including American soldiers. And the.

[13:30] Basically, oil prices continue to rise and the Strait of Hormuz has not opened up anymore. Trump talked about getting eight ships through that Iran gave as a gift. No one really knows what the fuck he's talking about there. That's another example. He made it seem like it's a grand diplomatic gesture. [13:50] No. To show that they were serious. People can't really tell what he's talking about. There's evidence of two ships going through, but... [13:57] That seems to be the sorts of ships that Iran was letting through already. And again, the worst of the oil crisis hasn't hit yet because there are still tankers that took off before the war began. And so we're still relying on some supplies that were already out there. And once those are gone, then it starts getting really bad. And again, it's also not just oil, but it's fertilizer and it's other critical supplies that don't just matter to us in the United States. [14:27] countries all over the world. They're declaring like an emergency in the Philippines because they don't have energy. India is running into all kinds of problems. And like the idea that this isn't going to come back and bite us in the ass is fanciful because it is a global economy. And what happens to other big countries with economies is going to matter to us as well. And meanwhile, Trump's out there saying, we don't need the straight. We don't need the straight. We don't need the straight. Why are you sending like a couple thousand troops over there to potentially [14:57] to open up the straight. Like we don't need the straight. What are you talking about? And if the straight being closed doesn't affect us, why are our gas prices up?

[15:05] more than a dollar. Why are they about to hit an average of $4 nationally any day now? Why are diesel prices near their highest level in recent memory? And the diesel prices thing is very important because how do you think things get delivered in this country? [15:18] on trucks that run diesel? Why is jet fuel... [15:21] so gotten so expensive that United airlines is cutting 5% of its flights. [15:27] Right. And the airline prices are up for anyone who would like to fly right now during a time of travel chaos. And so it absolutely affects us. And he's just lying about it. And the lies about what's happening at home. [15:38] are annoying, but we all can see the reality of it. Like he's not tricking. If someone wants to believe that things are fine because they love Trump so much, that's fine. That's their choice. But he's not tricking anyone that the street informers don't affect us. The lies that really matter, the lies about what's going to actually happen in this war where we can't see the real truth. [15:54] Yeah, and the lies that other countries have to parse, right? Because they have to make decisions, too, that are life-and-death decisions that could impact the global economy and millions of people everywhere. So my guess on this pushing back the deadline thing is – [16:10] The deadline is just going to keep getting pushed back. He's not going to destroy all of Iran's power plants because, as they said, they would then destroy an energy infrastructure across the Middle East. And that would send prices soaring everywhere and cause even more destruction and more instability and more chaos and more violence. So I think he's just not doing that. And he's just going to keep kicking the can down the road on that. There's also like this is the kind of shit he does. Negotiations are going as the Iranians guess. This is the kind of shit he does.

[16:40] another 10 days just because I'm nice. And then he goes and does a massive invasion or a bombing campaign or whatever he might do. So I do think we could be on the cusp of that as well. Um, because you never know. Um, one other line in the wall street journal story that, um, actually made me laugh out loud when I read it, even though it's not that funny is, um, quote, some allies are hopeful Trump can pivot to ousting the communist regime in Cuba. Great pivot, great pivot. Let's, [17:10] Maybe that's a good thing to do. While close advisors want him to focus on the most pressing issue facing voters, concerns about the cost of living, which have been exacerbated by the war. Yeah, no shit. I saw someone point out on Twitter, I think you shared this, that Trump found the one thing you could possibly do to raise both gas prices and mortgage rates at the same time. [17:31] Incredible. Incredible. I just love them all weighing the option like, what should we do next? Should we focus on... [17:37] costs affordability the reason we won the election now let's go invade cuba look if you if you're struggling a war you got to get off the mat fight another war yeah cuba yeah back on the war back on the war horse donald you're gonna do cuba to distract from around to distract from the epstein files no no venezuela you're distracting from venezuela which is also distracting the epstein files [17:58] which is distracting from the pee tape. [18:01] Which Trump now says all of it is distracting from his other priorities, which are pens, ballrooms, arcs. What else? Marble armrests at the Trump Kennedy Center. Marble arm center. Yeah, he's also – see, he's going to be putting his name on the dollar bill now? Yes, yes. The Treasury is going to start putting his signature on the dollar bill. That's the new one?

[18:22] Great. Just amazing. Amazing stuff we got here in America. One reason Trump may genuinely believe he's already won this war is because the blow dried dipshit he put in charge of fighting it says shit like this is like at the cabinet meeting today. [18:37] It's the same old tired playbook, TDS in your DNA. You wouldn't know it if you listen to the dishonest hate Trump media. My message to the media is get it right. This actually isn't something new to me. [18:49] I may be a young guy, Mr. President, but I'm not a rookie in this realm. In 2007, I helped lead the surge, the public fight for the Iraq surge. [19:00] and watched people stand in the Senate and declare the war is lost before it even started. Who was that? [19:05] It was Harry Reid. That was the Democrats and the media. [19:09] working hand in glove. Back then it was three years into a war, now we're three weeks. [19:14] into... [19:15] in operation. [19:17] But see, unlike Iraq, [19:19] This isn't a tie. This is not parody. [19:22] This is not chaos. [19:24] This is success. [19:25] Pure American success. The Iraq War, famously a tie. This is a dated reference. Everyone went home with a little something. I really feel like whoever used to write the No Fear t-shirts back in the day writes Pete Hexas speeches. [19:41] what pure uncut american success we negotiate with bombs [19:50] TDS in your DNA with some STDs. What is he talking about? He keeps using that line. He sucks. Jesus Christ. I'm shocked the weekend anchor at Fox in charge of the Pentagon thing hasn't worked out swimmingly. It's just like, I'm no rookie. Remember Iraq? Yeah, I was the guy that sold the surge. Took three years to have that war be a fucking disaster. This one, just three weeks. Did you see, I think Zetel reported this,

[20:20] They're calling him Dumb McNamara. I thought it was the Iranians calling him that. Oh, I thought it was the Pentagon. Maybe. Who knows? Who knows? It could be both. It's a good name. I think we could workshop it. As Lovett pointed out, Don Dumsfeld was sitting right there for the taking. [20:39] Don Dumsfeld. All right. Well, there's a title for this episode. Did you see the NBC News story that Hegseth's folks have been putting together a daily morning highlight reel? [20:50] for Trump of, quote, stuff blowing up in Iran. I don't know. It seems like maybe the president's not getting a full picture of what's happening if he's just getting the highlight reel. It's like he's just like watching NFL Red Zone for the Iran war. Except the Red Zone actually would include the bad stuff. It's even worse than that. I mean, he gets his Diet Coke and a snuff film to start the day. [21:20] reporting what I see. I just see the bombs just blowing things up. Everything's going great. [21:24] It does – there's something like bigger here, which is – [21:30] The reason they do this is because it makes them happy. And if they tell him bad news, he yells at them. And they don't want to get yelled at. So we're making... [21:38] decisions around [21:40] war and military quote-unquote excursions the same way parents treat a hangry toddler, right? They don't – they are so afraid he's going to lose his shit and have a meltdown that they just tell him what he wants to hear, which is a very bad way to raise a child and it's a worse way to run a government. It is. Yeah. I try not to – I try not to give them their way too much. I mean it's hard not to sometimes, but – It's hard not to. But you know what? If they had their finger on the button and could launch a nuclear war or send thousands of troops to the Middle East,

[22:10] you know, yeah. [22:11] But apparently no one can do that with Donald Trump. I don't even know. Like, does Pete Hegsteth even know things are going bad as well? Like, what is happening? [22:18] I mean, I guess he gets briefed. He must. I don't. I mean, here's the thing from his perspective. [22:25] We're blowing up all the things we're supposed to be blowing up. And that's the only language he understands anyway. Because we negotiate with bombs. Because we negotiate with bombs. And we've got our hand on the throttle, as he was saying the other day in the Oval Office. Yeah, so I guess they really are judging success in this war by the amount of destruction we cause. Which is a strategy that worked great in Vietnam. [22:52] The End [22:55] Pod Save America is brought to you by Nutrafol. Real change comes from the small things you do every day that quietly add up to big improvements. That's the idea behind Nutrafol. It's built around a simple, consistent approach to hair health that works from within and delivers visible results over time, not overnight. Nutrafol is the number one dermatologist recommended hair growth supplemental brand and... [23:14] It's the number one hair growth supplement brand personally used by dermatologists. Nutrafol's hair growth supplements are peer-reviewed, NSF-certified for sport, and clinically tested to measure improvements in hair growth, quality, and strength. It's not a one-size-fits-all approach. Nutrafol offers multiple formulas for men and women tailored to different life stages like postpartum or menopause and lifestyle factors such as plant-based diet so you can get support that's actually right for you. Adding Nutrafol to your daily routine is easy.

[23:44] and free shipping to keep you on track. I'm taking it. I'm on it right now. How's it going? I think it's going great. I like it. I take it every day. It's basically, you take it like a vitamin. And look, I'm in a brutal conflict with nature, and I'm fighting it every day. And Nutrafol's one of my riders is Nutrafol. Your hair's growing so fast these days, I can see it. I can see it growing right now. Wow. Look at that. It just got longer. Look at that. See, thicker, stronger, faster-growing hair with less shedding. [24:09] You don't want shedding. No. In just three to six months with Nutrafol. For a limited time, Nutrafol is offering our listeners $10 off your first month's subscription and free shipping when you visit Nutrafol.com and enter promo code CROOKED. That's Nutrafol.com spelled N-U-T-R-A-F-O-L.com. Promo code CROOKED. [24:28] Pod Save America is brought to you by Magic Spoon. We love Magic Spoon. We sure do. We sure do. Peanut butter, the chocolate flavor, get them both, put them together. [24:36] Boy, you're in business. Magic spoon treats are crispy air and they make treats. [24:41] Love the treats. They make the bars. They're crispy, airy, protein-packed snack bars with 12 grams of protein, 7 grams of fiber, 0 grams of added sugar, 2 to 3 grams net carbs, and certified gluten-free. And they genuinely feel like a treat, not a sad health bar. They're perfect for tossing in your bag, keeping in your car, grabbing between meetings, or crushing when a sweet craving hits at night. Flavors include marshmallow, chocolate, peanut butter, double chocolate, and more. Very nostalgic, very dessert-coated. [25:06] if it doesn't even need a code. Yeah, it's dessert. That's just what it is. [25:11] Yeah. Like sometimes people say, oh, that movie was hope coated. This is a hopeful movie.

[25:16] Yeah, you can have it for breakfast. You don't have to have it for dessert, but it can be for dessert. Right. Doesn't need the code and it doesn't load you up on sugar. [25:23] And if you already know Magic Spoon for their cereal... [25:26] That's great too. Their high protein zero sugar cereal brings all the childhood nostalgia without the high sugar content. Each serving has 12 to 14 grams of protein in between zero to two grams of sugar. So it actually keeps you full. They've got classic flavors like fruity, frosted, cinnamon crunch, chocolate. [25:39] Cocoa and peanut butter. [25:41] Magic Spoon is easy to find. Just look for Magic Spoon at your local grocery store and they just rolled out treats nationwide at 7-11 or get $5 off your next order at MagicSpoon.com slash crooked. That's MagicSpoon.com slash crooked for $5 off. [25:59] Let's talk about how bad the politics of Iran are getting. Yeah, let's pivot to some good news. For Trump and the Republicans who will be on the ballot this fall. A bunch of them just got classified briefings from the Pentagon about the war, and some of them do not seem happy. Mike Rogers, chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said senior officials failed to provide basic details about the scope and direction of the military campaign. That's according to the New York Times. [26:27] He could see why Rogers would say that. He didn't go quite beyond that. Let me just say I could see why he said that. And here's a surprising MAGA voice of reason who was in those briefings. Nancy Mace. What was it about today's briefing that you found so concerned in terms of the idea of the United States...

[26:47] possibly putting troops on the ground in Iran. You've got to be careful about what I say because it was in a skiff and it was a classified setting, but there was frustration that reverberated throughout based on the information that we were receiving. And I'm Maga Mace. I am a conservative before I'm a Republican, and I support President Trump. I think he's done an excellent job. But when we're talking about troops on the ground, [27:17] has a significantly greater gravity than any other thing that we've talked about in [27:21] I mean, reading between the lines with what May said and what some of these other Republicans are telling reporters about these briefings, it sure seems like they were briefed that they're going to be some kind of ground troops on the ground in Iran soon, whether it's on Karg Island or wherever the fuck it is. And I didn't have a lot of details beyond that because they all seem pretty freaked out. [27:43] Yeah, it seems quite bad. It makes sense because I'm sure they got to, for the first time, ask questions about like, [27:49] What's the plan? What are we doing? What do we know? How do we get out of this? And there are no good answers to those questions. So Nancy Mace is running for for governor of South Carolina, which I forgot until that interview in a crowded primary. Obviously, she's Nancy Mace and usually unwell. But what is her answer to tell you about the politics there in some of these races? [28:09] You know, it's interesting because if you look at the polling, which we're going to dig into in a minute, but there is – [28:15] Among Republican base voters, MAGA voters, there is a high level of support for what President Trump is doing in Iraq. Will there be a high level of support for $200 billion for that?

[28:25] That's an open question. But so she's not actually doing she's not capturing something that you feel right now. But South Carolina is a state with a very high military and veterans population. It is she's maybe thinking ahead about where things might be a week from now, two weeks from now, three weeks from now, a few months from now about where people are going to be. [28:55] believing that [28:57] Maybe not that Trump is wrong here, but that he's being poorly served by the people who are running this war. [29:03] Yeah, I mean, none of them can do the most obvious thing, which is to criticize Donald Trump, because he is the big boy at 80 years old, who has decided to fight this war and is the decision maker. But they are too afraid. So they can't do that. So they all try to like blame someone else or talk around it. But you can tell the people who are in, you know, who have to run for office or in tough races, or even the people who just like been there a while and think this is a big deal. [29:33] and have been through other wars are starting to think this is a little bit crazy because it is. You can't think it's not crazy. [29:41] If you have any amount of sanity in your life, you can't think it's crazy because it's fucking bananas. It makes no sense what we're doing. No one can answer a question about it. There is no explanation. We're a month into it. There is no strategy. There is no objective. There is no end game. The gas prices are going up. If you spent your entire life fantasizing,

[30:00] and possibly purient ways about [30:03] a war with Iran like Lindsey Graham like this is very exciting. If you're just... [30:07] someone who hasn't thought about this for two seconds is just getting your news from the Fox News propaganda channel on the war, then maybe you think things are going fine. But if you actually think about it for a second – [30:18] It's insane. [30:19] It was also telling how Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance spoke about it at the cabinet meeting. We could have played clips forever, but we didn't really have the time. But Rubio, all he could say, continued to say, is the people running Iran are religious lunatics. They're religious lunatics. That's all he can say because he's like, okay, here's something that's true. So I can keep saying that. [30:49] to a store with a vest on, with bombs in the vest, and they blow it up. And imagine if it was nuclear. Imagine if the bombs were bigger. It made no fucking sense. He's talking about random suicide bombers. Was he talking about them here in the Middle East? He doesn't even know. [31:08] does not want to be any part of this, although apparently he might be leading negotiations. It is interesting to watch both of those two, who may have political futures beyond this, try as hard as they can to avoid talking about this war. Yeah, Rubio's was, which I saw, I only saw clips of J.D. Vance, but Rubio's, [31:25] He basically has tried to define success as what's already happened. So no matter what happens next, no matter who's in charge, no matter what deal is struck, no matter when the straight opens or not.

[31:38] Iran was dangerous. [31:40] there are dangerous people in charge. Those people are now dead. We are safer because of it. Like that is his, he's trying to like, that's not how the world works. It's not what's actually happening, but that's the case he's trying to make. And I think in his mind, anything that happens after that, [31:52] It's Pete Hicks' fault. [31:54] Yeah, that is true. It feels like Trump's getting ready to do that, too, since he basically has said a couple times this week, Pete wanted the war. Pete doesn't want the war to end. It was Pete's idea to do the war, and now he's really sad that we're going to have to end it. So, yeah, they are preparing to – Pete's going to be doing his next briefing from under the bus. So all these Republicans are clearly seeing the same polls the rest of us are. People are pissed at this point, mostly because of the war's economic impact. [32:22] five-month high. Gas is now at an average of $3.98 a gallon, expected to keep climbing. A new forecast on Thursday said inflation is headed back up this year. And all of this is why Trump's approval rating is already hitting record lows for his second term, now under 40 percent, according to three new polls out this week from Quinnipiac, AP, and Reuters. A new Fox poll has his disapproval at 59 percent, the highest in either of his terms, with half of those strongly disapproving. Polls [32:52] handling of Iran where he's underwater 36 to 64. [32:56] What a week not to have an episode of Polar Coaster. But for those of you who don't yet get the message box, which you should be subscribers, which crooked.com slash yes we Dan go subscribe to the message box. But here you're just going to.

[33:10] Give us all a free preview, maybe. I will. Of what you said in the message box today. I will. So Trump's position is even worse than people think it is. Like, as you point out, his approval rating is lower than it has ever been. He is under 40 in three polls this week. As Lakshad Jain in the argument points out, Trump is not just unpopular. He's more unpopular than any modern president at this point in the presidency, including Donald Trump in his first term. [33:33] It's tough. He is underwater on every single issue. His entire political strength, the reason he's been able to survive every other – [33:42] problem, [33:43] You know, period of political turmoil in his in his career has been because of people trusted him on the economy. That is over. [33:50] He is 20 points underwater on the economy, 30 points underwater on inflation. In a couple of these polls, Trump's economic rating is now lower than Joe Biden's was at any point in Joe Biden's presidency. [34:02] Wow. And then there's another point here, which I think does not get enough attention. I hit on this in the message box is... [34:08] It had always been true. [34:10] since Trump came down the escalator, that yes, Trump... [34:13] drove intense opposition among Democrats. He also drove intense support among Republicans. [34:21] And so Trump being on the ballot, [34:24] Or Trump being out there campaigning. Yes, it would drive up Democrats, but it helped Republicans because it would drive up Republican turnout, too. [34:30] That is not true anymore. In Nate Semper's polling model, the number of Americans who strongly disapprove of Trump [34:35] is two times the number of Americans who strongly approve of Trump. [34:39] Republicans like Trump. They don't love him anymore.

[34:41] And you can see that in the generic ballot, right? In the CNN poll last month, I think you guys might have mentioned this on Tuesday, but – [34:48] The number of Democrats who are highly interested in the election or motivated to vote is much higher than the number of Republicans. And when you just ask among those who are highly interested in the election, how they're going to vote in 2026, the generic ballot expands from five points to 16 points. [35:04] I mean, this is the makings of an absolute 1994 movie. [35:09] 2018. [35:10] 2006 style political disaster. And I left 2010 out for a reason I can, I can explain if you're interested. But it is like the conditions are there for, [35:20] It's just an absolute disaster for Trump and the Republicans this fall. Why'd you leave 2010? Because 2010 – [35:28] I think is different because Obama was much, much more popular than any of these other presidents were at that point. And you had 10% unemployment. But the thing that really hurt Democrats was that we had had two consecutive wave elections. And so there was a large – this huge number of seats that were in enemy territory that the wave receded. [35:49] In 2010, and they all got left behind. But yes, if you're but like, if you want to compare 2010, Trump's numbers are abysmal compared to Obama's at that point. [35:59] I keep seeing these polls and it's it's look, it's lovely. It's the best part of my day to see polls where Trump's under 40. But, you know, the election is with other Republicans on the ballot. It's the midterm election coming in November. And, you know, the generic ballot, like you said, it's been it's so that the average the Democratic lead on the generic ballot right now is five and a half points in Nate Silver's average.

[36:29] Just this week, it was Democrats plus 11, plus 10, plus 8, plus 8. There's a Quinnipiac polls, Global Strategy Group, Emerson. [36:39] And then you had like Reuters where Trump's approval was very, very low. You go of morning consults that only has Democrats up like between two and four points in those polls. So it could be. [36:50] Much bigger than five and a half at this point. It is notable, of course, that in all these polls, the approval rating of the Democratic Party is still in the shitter. [36:59] Now, the Republicans aren't more popular either, but like maybe like a point or two more popular than the Democrats in these polls. But Democrats and the Republicans are sitting at like 30, 35 percent favorability in a lot of these polls. Now, among independents, Democrats are slightly more popular than Republicans, which, you know, is probably good for the midterms. And of course, some of that Democratic weakness is just Democratic voters being pissed at the party, but still going to vote Democrat. [37:29] need to start making [37:31] Is it more a case against the Republican Party in general and not just Donald Trump? Or do you think that they're just so tied to Donald Trump that it's easy to – if Trump's approval is way down, then people are just not going to vote for Republicans? History would say that in the midterms, making it about Trump is sufficient. Is enough. There is – like the way I would think about this is a two-step process. [37:52] Voters leave one side and you have to persuade them to come over to your side. [37:56] Step one has happened. [37:58] Step two has not yet happened. There are opportunities for that to happen. There are things we're going to have to do. The Democratic approval rating, as you point out, is abysmal. Also, if you compare Republican versus Democrat trust on the issues, yes, Trump is 30 points underwater, but we're on inflation, but we're essentially tied with a generic Democrats tied with a generic Republican on inflation. And in some of these House races are sort of a generic Democrat versus a generic Republican. We're going to have to continue to make

[38:22] that case, that individual Democrat is going to have to [38:26] show why they are better than a generic democrat on inflation or cost of living and a whole host of other issues and so there's a lot of work to do the way i would put it is this is a historic opportunity for the party like the [38:39] The political... [38:41] Storm clouds have aligned as such that we have a shot to have a very, very big election. We have work to do to get there. That includes improving the party brand. It includes our candidates running good races. It includes having enough money to be able to compete in some of these Trump plus 10, Trump plus 12, Trump plus 13 seats that are on the cusp of possibly tipping if we do everything right. It means being able to compete aggressively in all these expansion Senate states like [39:08] Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, maybe even Florida. And so like there, I just, there are a lot of ways that we can stumble on the way of the altar here, but the opportunity is there as we sit here today. And if this work continues, if oil prices and gas prices continue to go up, the opportunity is going to get even bigger. [39:25] And again, this is not just about 2026, but it is about setting the table for 2028, because for every extra House seat, especially Senate seat, Democrats win this time around. It's going to help our chances of having majority if we get a Republican president in 2028 and then can actually pass it. And that means and I think the Senate map is it's instructive here, right, which is like it used to be that we're like, oh, maybe we're close in Texas or wouldn't it be cool if we want Alaska?

[39:55] Thank you. [39:56] Texas, Alaska, Ohio, Iowa. [39:59] We need two of those four. [40:02] and North Carolina, and Maine, and to hold Michigan and New Hampshire, and Ossoff in Georgia, sorry, to have a Senate majority, to take the Senate back. And then the map doesn't get a whole lot easier in 2028. There's not a lot of pickup opportunities in 2028 for Democrats either. So then you'd have to hold more seats in tough states, and maybe, I guess, wait, Ron Johnson's up in Wisconsin then in 2028? And McCormick is up. And McCormick in Pennsylvania, yeah. No, no, that's not true. [40:32] Fetterman's up. Fetterman's up. Fetterman's up, yeah. [40:34] But this is a little bit of bad luck is you would have almost wanted – yes, we have all – maybe this year we have a shot at some of these Senate seats we would not have in a different year. Also, we have a bunch of Democrats in tough seats who we like to have up in a great year like this. It was like Joe Manchin was able to cruise to re-election in 2018. It would have been great if we could have re-elected. [40:56] Ruben Gago or Mark Kelly or Ralph E.L. Warnock or... [41:01] Tammy Baldwin, you know, just it's not the best year to have this happen, but the opportunity is there. And your point is, if you if we do not pick up a significant number of sentences, even if we don't get to 51, we're not we're not our the next Democratic president in 2029 is not going to have a governing majority. [41:18] to start with. And again, just like, want to get this in people's minds too. You might think, okay, well, Trump's out Democratic president, a Democratic president without a congressional majority, passing a bunch of executive actions.

[41:31] Not going to fly. Yeah, because we have this Supreme Court. We've seen what happens and everyone's just going to get incredibly cranky with good for good reason at that Democratic president. And then we're going to lose the majority. Then we're going to lose. You know what I'm saying? So it's just like you really it really is important. You know, go to Vote Save America because we're we're focused on giving you stuff to do to help take back the House. But there's also Senate races. There's there's plenty for everyone to do. But you're right. [42:01] 26 and we need to put the fucking foot on the gas to pick up every single seat possible and that's going to require not just Trump fucking things up but Democrats getting their shit together. [42:21] Pod Save America is brought to you by Stamps.com. It's staggering that to this very day, many small business owners are still making post office runs or are stuck with expensive postage meter leases. We're staggered. [42:32] we're staggered by this falling over staggering [42:36] It's 2026. Enough. Enough. Basta. Mail and ship when you want, how you want with Stamps.com. With Stamps.com, you can send from your computer or phone 24-7. No long lines, no low supplies, open anytime. Print postage on demand and get up to 90% off carrier rates like FedEx, UPS, and USPS. Schedule carrier pickups right from your door and get carrier-compliant labels every time. No errors, no rejected mail, no wasted trips. It's perfect for your business. Send certified mail, get document tracking to confirm delivery and analytics

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[44:53] you [44:55] In case you're not a fan of the polls, we also have some new election results that should scare the shit out of Republicans in Florida. [45:03] Democrats flipped two state legislature seats on Tuesday, a state Senate seat in Tampa and a House district that Trump won by 11 in 2024. That just happens to include the president's home in Mar-a-Lago, where Trump himself voted on Tuesday, along with Melania and Barron. Now, you might be wondering how they voted since this is what Trump said earlier this week. [45:25] I hate mail-in ballots because basically it's a way of cheating. [45:31] Hates them. Hates them. Let's hear how he answered a question about this at the cabinet meeting. [45:53] Because they had a lot of different things. But, you know, we have exceptions for mail-in ballots. You do know that. Oh, yeah. So, okay. So you had a lot of different things. So you used mail-in voting because it was more convenient. Is that what you're saying? Okay, cool. You know, look. [46:05] It's unique to a president to have to work on Election Day and maybe not be able to go to get off work to go to the polls. And so those people who can't get off work to go to the polls should be able to mail in their ballot. [46:17] Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I mean, it's a great case. He makes a great case for mail-in balloting right there. He also said, he's like, and we have exceptions. We have exceptions. If you're sick, if you're on a business trip, and I'm like, oh, really? How are you going to implement those exceptions? You're going to require a doctor's note from people, an employer's note that they were on a business trip to get their mail-in balloting done? What the fuck is he talking about? It's so stupid. It's so stupid. It's so stupid. It's also worth remembering. His campaign aggressively encouraged

[46:45] mail balloting in 2024. [46:47] Yes, of course, because they because Republicans know it's good for them. They need mail-in balloting as well. You know what state has led the nation in mail-in balloting for a very long time? [46:55] Florida. [46:56] And you know who it usually benefited for a very long time before COVID? Republicans. [47:01] anyway let's talk about that race that Trump voted in and obviously he also endorsed the Republican candidate [47:08] That didn't help. What do you think of those Florida wins? Is the blue wave... [47:13] going to bury Mar-a-Lago? Look, with our current climate policy, eventually, yes, John. Something is. Yes, yes. A wave will do it of some kind. Electorally or otherwise, yes. [47:25] These are big wins. They are indicative of the political environment. It's about an 11-12 point swing in the district that has Mar-a-Lago, a big swing in the Tampa district where that Democrat was outspent 10-1. [47:39] in the race and still won. Wow. And we spent a lot of time in 23 and 24. [47:43] Pointing out that special elections were not perfectly predictive, that it's a very different political environment. We were succeeding in them as Democrats because we had a base of high propensity voters who turn out all the time. Now, two interesting things here. One. [47:57] Yes, there was very good Democratic turnout in these races, but that's not why the Democrats won. The number of votes received by both the Democrats in these districts dramatically exceeded the number of registered Democrats in the district. And so the only way they could perform that well was to do very well with independents and Republicans. Another thing that our friend Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report has pointed out in a piece today, special elections have been pretty predictive of midterms.

[48:27] Democrats were winning special elections by about 11 and a half points, and they won the national popular vote by nine points. And then in 2022, Republicans were winning special elections by about four points. [48:38] And Republicans won the popular vote by three points in that election. [48:41] You know, I was going to ask you this because I was looking at the swing in that Mar-a-Lago district between the last Republican who won it because Trump won it by 11, but the last Republican won by, I guess, 19. Yeah. And I feel like all of these, the swing from 24 and so many of these special elections ends up somewhere between like. [49:00] 15 and 20 yeah and it's just like it keeps hitting there every time and i'm like it's weird because you know we're seeing the generic ballot at you know five and a half right now some 10 or whatever but all these swings from 2024 have been in the in the high teens i think the average of all the special elections since 2025 has been about 12 points i think that's been the the performance [49:30] The last couple of months of them have gotten a little, I mean, there's a small sample size, but I feel like they've gotten a little. There have been a couple, there have been a couple like gigantic ones this month. It's always, these things are always very, you got to look at all of them because they're very race specific. Like you could have a very bad candidate. Like you look at this, like you, you use the Trump number, not the 20, the previous special house race in that house district. It was Mar-a-Lago because it probably was not particularly competitive because the Democrat didn't run a real race.

[50:00] Right now, these special elections look like 2018 in terms of margin. [50:03] Wow. Well, that's exciting. Except the generic ballot. We have work to do. We got work to do. All right, let's talk about the airports, many of which are currently still a complete mess, just as millions of kids and families are traveling for spring break. Security lines are hours long in some places, all because TSA agents haven't been paid in a month. Many have stopped showing up for work. Nearly 500 have quit. Problem hasn't been solved by Trump sending in ICE agents to stand around all day in the airport. That hadn't fixed it. But just now, [50:33] Oh, wow. [50:35] We have breaking news. Trump has truthed. He said that he is instructing [50:42] the Department of Homeland Security, to pay TSA. [50:46] Which apparently he could have done all along. [50:51] You know, I don't think that's how that works. That's what he. So here we go. I'm going to get through. I'm going to just read you his statement. There's a lot of radical left Democrats crying Chuck Schumer. They've, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Let's see. Democrats almost destroyed our country. Asylums, blah, blah, blah. You've heard that all before. Okay. Because the Democrats have recklessly created a true national crisis, [51:16] using my authorities under the law to protect our great country, as I always do. Therefore, I am going to sign an order instructing the Secretary of Homeland Security, Mark Wayne Mullen, congrats to you, Senator Mullen, to immediately pay our TSA agents in order to address this emergency situation and to quickly stop the Democrat chaos at the airports. It is not an easy thing to do, but I'm going to do it. I want to thank our hardworking TSA agents, blah, blah, blah, and ICE, of course. That's it.

[51:46] at her DJT. [51:48] that seems bad what you think it seems bad yeah I think it seems bad because that says there's no deal there's no law being passed that sends money [52:00] To the Department of Homeland Security that they can then take that money and give it to the workers. [52:05] We have a response from Chris Murphy. He said the national emergency is that he can't cut a deal, that he's a bad negotiator. I don't think that's grounds for a national emergency. We made progress today. We've been actively talking all day. [52:18] So the backstory here is Congress has not been able to reach a deal. It seems like one option that has been discussed is basically funding everything in the Department of Homeland Security except for ICE. But then also Democrats, even if they do that, still want some reforms for ICE. Not as much. I think they'd be willing not to do as many reforms as they originally asked for, but they want more than the White House was going to give them, which is basically nothing. [52:48] sure. [52:49] what the challenge was there. I don't know why you can't just... Because I know Democrats were trying to just fund... [52:55] TSA and Republicans were blocking that. So then why not fund all of DHS and just leave ICE for another negotiation? The sticking point was, if you want to get nerdy about this, is that if you fund all of DHS except ICE, you're still funding... [53:10] CBP and HSI, Homeland Security Investigations, and they do immigration enforcement. [53:16] And so they would be proceeding, we'd be paying them to do immigration enforcement absent

[53:22] reforms and if we remember it was cvp officers who were involved in the killing [53:26] Alex Pready. It also seems like they were going to get a deal. As our old boss, Pete Rouse from Obama World used to say, nothing motivates a senator like the smell of jet fumes. And once John Thune said, well, I guess we're not going to be able to go on recess if we don't fix this. It was pretty sure they're headed for a deal. So Trump has fucked this up. It's not clear how they're going to [53:46] Pay for it? Are they going to take money from ICE and give it to them, which seems cool, but definitely not legal. Maybe they'll get some from the Big Beautiful Bill. But riddle me this. I mean, I'm – I understand nothing matters, but that's definitely – [54:02] Not... [54:03] how the power of the purse works like congress didn't fund them like you can't maybe he's getting a rich person to pay them i don't really know what's happening no no he's he's he's he's he's clearing an emergency is the authority under the law under the law of course so here's here's a question dan so the department of homeland security then is still shut down [54:23] No one else in DHS is getting paid. Trump is paying just the TSA workers with some emergency funding that we don't know where it's coming from yet. [54:31] Why then, for the last two weeks, have Republicans blocked Democrats' efforts to simply just fund TSA? [54:39] because it's very easy to – they could right now, with a very simple vote in the Senate, in the House, just say, okay, we're going to fund TSA and let's negotiate the rest later so we can fix the airports, which Democrats have been trying to do. Republicans blocked that, and now Trump's basically doing it anyway with some magic money. As America's favorite soybean farmer would say, he's jujitsu-ing you, John.

[55:05] We're jujitsu-ing the Iranians with their own oil. [55:09] I honestly have no idea. I don't even know what to say. It makes no sense. It seems crazy. Maybe it's so crazy it'll work. [55:19] Someone pointed out, Eric Wasson from Bloomberg, he said Trump did the same likely illegal move to pay troops during the fall shutdown, and it was just too politically toxic to try to stop it in court. So it's illegal, but who's going to court to say don't pay this? That's probably what's happening here. [55:38] That is probably what's happening here. Probably fucking Amtrak sues to get people back on the trains. [55:42] Hey, you know what? It's like whether the Republicans finally said yes to the Democrats attempt to fund TSA or Trump just does it with magic money that we can't find. Who who cares? I guess I guess the airports will get fixed. Although, I mean, I said I have those must have those 500 TSA agents that quit back probably. Yeah, it seems like things are not going to be perfect anytime soon at the airports. [56:12] What's the pressure to get a deal now that the airport chaos is going to subside? Yeah, if I was a Coast Guard or FEMA worker, I'd be pretty pissed right now. Right, because they all have to get paid. Yeah. Yeah. [56:23] And how much magic money is there, John? [56:25] Who knows? Who knows? We're spending – how many billions have we spent in Iran already? Scott Bassett is going to turn on the presses and start printing those Donald Trump bucks.

[56:38] Get those printed for some people. Yeah, we got to fucking build the ark, too. [56:51] Pod Save America is brought to you by CookUnity. If you've got culinary taste, you know how expensive exploring your local food scene can be and how hard it is to find the time and energy to try somewhere new. CookUnity is the first chef to use service delivering locally sourced meals from award winning chefs right to your door every week. And it's cheaper than other delivery options. Go to CookUnity.com slash crooked or enter code crooked before checkout for 50 percent off your first week. We love CookUnity. I just picked out my CookUnity meals today. Isn't it a great feeling? It's a dream. You get a little bit excited or what you're going to get next week. Boy. [57:21] It's like you're shopping, you know, or you're like you're reading a menu, but then you're just like, meet me. I'm going to pick that. It's like you are shopping. And you are reading a menu. It's the best. I had a chicken tikka masala that was excellent last week. I really like one of their Greek salads. It was a Waldorf salad that I liked. And then as a little treat, there was a chicken parmesan and I had a pasta with vodka sauce. And it's like, yeah, I'll eat that. I'll eat that. [57:42] I really liked it. [57:43] I'm loving cook unity. I get six meals a week. [57:46] I'll have a meatloaf for breakfast. You don't go to jail for that. No, no one's going to put you away for that. [57:51] Not with cook unity. You get to pick out what you want. I'm like, you want. Yeah. And then you can, you can, they have like the new chefs come in, new, uh, new recipes come in. You're like carne asada. [58:01] Yes, please. Sign me up. See, I say to that, not no Boston of that.

[58:08] Unlike other meal services, we love CookUnity. It's a chef collective. [58:13] Bringing exciting culinary talent straight to your table. Well, the food that they made. Jose Andres isn't knocking on the door, but you're still getting great stuff in the mail. Your food arrives fresh. You might. Never frozen. In packaging that keeps meals fresh in the fridge for up to seven days, Cook Unity packaging is compostable, recyclable, reusable. [58:28] There are hundreds of dishes to choose from, and the menu is updated constantly. Options for seven different dietary preferences, vegan, paleo, pescatarian, gluten-free, and more. Filter for soy, nut, and dairy-free options. Menus are posted two weeks in advance, so you have plenty of time to choose. Experience chef-quality meals every week delivered right to your door. Go to cookunity.com slash crooked or enter code crooked before a checkout for 50% off your first week. That's 50% off your first week by using code crooked or going to cookunity.com slash crooked. [58:56] This is the Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast podcast. I'm Kelly Bowman, and I have been chasing the stories, meeting the people, and uncovering the little details that help you explore this place like a local. And the more time you spend here, you realize it's not just a beach. The shoreline is a launch pad for catching waves and watching rockets lift into space. Open your free iHeartRadio app, search Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast, [59:24] And listen now. [59:26] Fresh Florida Watermelon. When they say don't play with your food, they're not talking about fresh Florida Watermelon. Built for fun, this mouthwatering powerhouse is perfect for backyard barbecues. It's the snack table all-star that always brings its A-game, one delicious bite at a time. When it comes to picking your picnic lineup, select the summertime legend. Pick Florida Watermelon. To see what Florida Watermelon can do for you, visit freshfromflorida.com today.

[59:56] you [59:57] One more thing before we go. On Tuesday, the California Democratic Party released the latest gubernatorial primary poll that shows two Republicans... [1:00:07] and therefore no Democrats, [1:00:09] advancing to the November election to succeed Governor Gavin Newsom. There have now been several polls that show a result like this, with Republicans in the one and two spots. If you're not familiar, California has a jungle primary system where all candidates, regardless of party, compete in the same primary, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election. Here in 2026, two Republicans are running in the primary, along with around 10,000 Democratic candidates. I think that's the number. [1:00:39] Party's poll. Those two Republican candidates, Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, are polling at around 15%, while no Democrat is polling higher than 10%. So this is a fucking mess. USC had to cancel a debate this week that would have featured the two Republicans and four of the leading Democratic candidates because USC's debate criteria locked out four of the lower polling candidates who all happen to be either Black, Latino, or Asian, who pushed back pretty hard until the debate was [1:01:09] What did you make of that before we get into the broader issue? The mistake here is the criteria included... [1:01:16] not just polling position, but also money. So that led them to include Matt Mahan, the low polling, but mayor of San Jose, who also has a lot of money because people like Sergey Brin and a lot of tech people are funding his campaign.

[1:01:30] And so once you put – I think you could have made a credible argument that you were going to stop at Tom Steyer, Eric Swalwell, Katie Porter. They have been – [1:01:40] three four and five in the polls and bunched up together for a very long time with a decent size gap between them and everyone else but once you included mayhem in there it seemed like a very [1:01:49] I understand why people would be upset about that because you shouldn't be able to get on a debate stage just because Sergey Brin writes a massive check to your super PAC. [1:01:56] Yeah, it does seem like that the criteria was laid out before the debate when they all agreed. So it's not like they made it up as they went. Yes, yes. Point taken. But I think the larger challenge is there's a debate on April 1st, and I think there's one on April 22nd. And the Democratic candidates were not included in the USC debate. Javier Becerra, Antonio Viragosa, Tony Thurmond, who's the superintendent, state superintendent in California, Betty Yee, who's the former state comptroller. [1:02:26] If not all of them are included in a debate, then none of them will participate in the debate, which seems like unwise to me. It's a mess. It's a mess. Because I think Becerra and Villarosa did qualify for the next debate, but I don't know. And I think they accepted. And now are they not going to go because Yee and Thurmond, who are polling at 1% and 2%, aren't going to go? I don't know. Broader question, what happens now? Primary is June 2nd. Ballots are already printed. They will start getting mailed out in early May. [1:02:56] What do California Democrats need to do to fix this mess and avoid accidentally electing a Republican governor?

[1:03:02] It's a classic collective action problem, John. [1:03:07] Everyone's incentive is to keep things exactly as the way they are up until the exact moment where we nominate two Republicans to run. [1:03:14] For Governor... [1:03:15] in the most Democratic state in the country. I mean, there have been several polls now, right? I think we're at 20 polls that all show the same thing. Because I think that we just, one of the, maybe VoteHub or someone who does the polling average, we've just hit the criteria to actually keep an average going. And it's bad for Democrats. Well, but here's what's important about these polls. So you got the two Republicans who are either in the one or two spot or one or three or whatever else. And then, [1:03:42] Tom Steyer, Eric Swalwell, and Katie Porter are all in like double digits in most of these polls. I think a few polls may be Katie's at eight or, you know, someone else. Like they slip here and there, but most of them are in like double digits in these polls. [1:03:54] Then... [1:03:55] Becerra, Vieragosa, Thurman, Betty Yee, and Matt Mahan are all... [1:04:01] None of them have have topped five in any of these polls. Five percent. Many of them are like one or two or three. So it's like these candidates are just they're just going to stay in even though they think. And like, here's the thing, Matt, man, you're like, OK, well, he's the mayor of San Jose. And so maybe, you know, people don't really know him, although he does have a lot of money. So we can get on air. He joined the race late. But put him aside. [1:04:27] Becerra. [1:04:28] Has won statewide. He was the Attorney General of California, served in the Biden administration. So clearly, he's got name ID. Villara Gosa ran statewide. Mayor of LA ran against Gavin Newsom when Newsom ran. So he ran a statewide campaign. And then Tony Thurman and Betty Year at like 1% anyway. But like what...

[1:04:45] I don't know. If you're Berserra and Viragosa, like, what are you doing? Well, I mean, here's... Or Matt Mahan at this point. Like, what are you doing? [1:04:51] Yeah, I mean, it's a great question. I mean, it is. The problem here is that California is basically a 60-40 state, and the 60 is being divided up like 12 ways, and the 40 is being divided up two ways. And the math is very bad for Democrats, if that's the case. Now, there is a big chunk of undecided, and that undecided is mostly Democratic. And so what you have to hope is that when that undecided comes home, it comes to the [1:05:16] one of the candidates who has an actual chance of winning, right? If the undecided allocates evenly amongst all 12 candidates, whatever it is, then we stay in this problem. It's also... [1:05:25] I wrote in the aforementioned message box a month or so ago, now it's not time to panic. I don't think it's time to panic yet, but we're getting close to panic time. And people are going to – what's going to have to happen here is people are going to have to think – [1:05:38] about what's best for the party in the state and not themselves. It's going to include all these candidates who do not have a shot to win, because if you do not have support now and you do not have money, [1:05:49] to become known in the most expensive television state in the country, you are not going to win. There is no path to winning. It can't happen. So the best thing you can do is drop out, [1:05:59] and endorse someone who has a chance to win. So that's it. Failing that, it is incumbent upon everyone who has a platform. [1:06:07] From Gavin Newsom, [1:06:10] Adam Schiff. [1:06:11] Alex Padilla. [1:06:12] people who talk into microphones, people who post on social media, to at some point in the near future say, these are the candidates who have a chance to win.

[1:06:22] Pick one of them and a vote for anyone else. [1:06:25] is the vote for a Republican governor of California. This actually went down in a House race or two in like 2018. Yeah, I remember that. Because this comes up periodically when you have a lot of Democrats running and two Republicans, you're going to end up in this situation. And we've successfully navigated those. It's easier to do at a House race level than a statewide level. But people are going to have to say, and it's going to be uncomfortable because the most, most, most, most likely scenario is those three candidates are going to be [1:06:52] Eric Swalwell, Tom Steyer, Kitty Porter. Right. And, you know, I was going to say, like, that's it. But it's like, you know, I guess you got, what, another week or two. Let's see another couple of polls. See if anyone breaks up. It's like nothing's happening. California is it is a huge state. It's an expensive state. No one knows who anyone is other than the governor and the senators. These these candidates, even though you're right. [1:07:14] Viserowicey Attorney General. [1:07:16] in the in biden's age he's a secretary any member of congress for a long time no one knows very much about him the the [1:07:21] Um, you know, same thing. All these other people you're mentioning other than that man are state elected officials. They have run statewide and no one knows anything. And if they're not, and they don't have the money to introduce themselves to. [1:07:32] Like the system here, [1:07:33] Sucks because of how expensive it is to run ads. And the state's too big to... [1:07:38] go around and meet everyone and local media is so hollered out that you can't even, um, [1:07:43] like have an incredible earned media communication strategy to get well known because no one sees that shit anymore. And so like this is this is where it is what it is. And it's going to be uncomfortable. We have going to have to make some tough decisions to ensure that California does not have a Republican governor.

[1:07:58] One thing that these Democratic candidates and every other Democratic official in California could all... [1:08:04] work together or decide together on is to elevate one of those Republican candidates and attack that Republican candidate instead of the other one and to make them a bigger deal. Because I was thinking about this when I was reading Gavin's book and Tommy and I interviewed him, like he talked about how in his race, it was him and Villaraigosa. And he knew that if in the general, he felt good about winning, but it would be a tougher race against a fellow Democrat, Villaraigosa, than it would be a Republican. And so he elevated John Cox as this Trumpy Republican, [1:08:34] focused all of his advertising, negative advertising on Cox and nothing. And he barely mentioned Villara Gosa. And then sure enough, Cox won second and Villara Gosa got third and then Gavin Cruz to victory. And obviously this is a different situation, a different composition to candidates. But I would imagine if they all decided we're going to all go after Steve Hilton, he's the boogeyman. He loves Trump. He's on Fox all the time and make him the big, the big bad guy. Then like maybe he gets more Republicans and then Chad Bianco falls. Well, I think so. [1:09:04] In the Cox Newsom race, I think Cox got 38, got 40%, right? And so when you add up what – [1:09:13] I haven't looked at the average, but in general, it seems like Bianca plus Hilton's getting to like... [1:09:17] So [1:09:18] 32? 32, yeah. So what you're probably doing is you're taking that 8% of Republicans who don't know that the election is happening and putting them towards one of them. It's not a zero-sum game amongst your Republicans. For what Newsom was doing, if I recall correctly, is there was one Republican of consequence who had any chance of making it, and he was making sure Republicans knew that this is the person to vote for. That's their guy.

[1:09:48] electorate. [1:09:49] And the fact that most Republicans don't turn out in a primary because there's generally not much of them to vote for here is different because I'm not sure you're going to lower Bianca. You might just raise Hilton. [1:09:58] And we all say there's no one in charge. I wonder if like Newsom or Kamala Harris at some point. Or Kamala Harris, another person who has a platform here. That's what I'm saying. Like at some point, I wonder if one of these statewide officials who's popular, I mean, they're probably, you know, these campaigns are doing polls. I'm sure they've tested the power of some of these endorsements. [1:10:28] yeah for sure i mean of course they'd all have to do the same yeah that's right like this fucking state you have like gavin newsom like endorses eric swalwell and then kamala harris jumps in and endorses katie porner yeah and then someone comes in and does styer and then we're right back where we were again yeah my fucking mess oh but anyway yeah i mean right now it's one of those three and i know like matt mahan has like got in the race late but you know he's got a lot of money and he's you know spending it on ads so we'll see i think maybe like another another week or two see [1:10:58] Maybe suddenly everyone will be like, oh, Villaraigosa, great, we want him back in state government or Becerra. I don't know. But I really think we're a week or two away from just like, no, it's those three candidates and that's it. Yeah, we're five weeks away from ballots going out, so – [1:11:12] All right. Well, that's something to look forward to here in California. That's our show for today. Also, a reminder, No Kings is tomorrow. We got another No Kings Day. So make sure you make a plan to get out there. You can go to votesaveamerica.com and you can find out a No Kings location near you. Alex Wagner will be back in the feed on Sunday with a conversation with independent journalist and Trump target Don Lemon. Check it out. Have a good weekend. Bye, everyone.

[1:11:42] If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad-free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to crooked.com slash friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review. That helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Cricket. Pod Save America is a Cricket Media production. [1:12:00] Our producer is Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reid Cherlin is our executive editor. [1:12:07] Adrian Hill is our head of news and politics. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer, with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt DeGroat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Carol Pellaviv, David Tolles, and Ryan Young. Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East. [1:12:36] . [1:12:41] you [1:12:42] This is the Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast podcast. I'm Kelly Bowman, and I have been chasing the stories, meeting the people, and uncovering the little details that help you explore this place like a local. And the more time you spend here, you realize it's not just a beach. The shoreline is a launch pad for catching waves and watching rockets lift into space. Open your free iHeartRadio app, search Cocoa Beach on Florida Space Coast, [1:13:10] And listen now. [1:13:12] Meet Chris. He's handy with tools and tech and likes earning extra income on his own terms. With Air Tasker, he chooses which tasks he wants, when to work, and names his price. Download the Air Tasker app or go to airtasker.com. Air Tasker, get anything done? Fresh Florida watermelon. When they say don't play with your food, they're not talking about fresh Florida watermelon. Built for fun, this mouth-watering powerhouse is perfect for backyard barbecues.

[1:13:42] brings its A-game, one delicious bite at a time. When it comes to picking your picnic lineup, select the summertime legend. Pick Florida watermelon. To see what Florida watermelon can do for you, visit freshfromflorida.com today.